[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices rebounded sharply on July 11, with "anti-cut-throat competition" boosting the commodity market

SMM Nickel News on July 11:

Macro News:

(1) Several US Fed officials made comments. Musallam: The impact of tariffs on inflation may not become clear until the end of the year, and the US fiscal deficit may become a financial stability issue in the future; Daly: Considering implementing an interest rate cut in the autumn, believing there will be two interest rate cuts this year. No evidence of the impact of sustained tariffs on prices has been seen; Waller reiterated the possible reasons for an interest rate cut in July and stated that its easing policy was not politically motivated, and that stablecoins could boost overall demand for the US dollar.

(2) Wang Yi discussed the achievements of mutually beneficial cooperation between China and ASEAN. On July 10, 2025, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, introduced the fruitful achievements of cooperation between the two sides when attending the China-ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Kuala Lumpur. Wang Yi stated that negotiations for Version 3.0 of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area had been fully completed, and the protocol would be signed within the year. The ASEAN-China-GCC Summit created a new model for cross-regional cooperation.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 121,000-123,300 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,150 yuan/mt, an increase of 1,550 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 1,900-2,100 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,000 yuan/mt, a decrease of 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands is -100-300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2508 contract) closed up 1.13% to 121,270 yuan/mt in the night session. During the daytime session, it opened higher and continued to rise, opening at 121,200 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 121,500 yuan/mt during the session. As of the midday break, SHFE nickel was quoted at 121,610 yuan/mt, up 1.42%.

Recently, the domestic concept of "anti-cut-throat competition" has boosted the commodity market, offsetting external negative factors, and nickel prices have rebounded in tandem. The external macro environment remains uncertain in the future, and it is expected that nickel prices will still maintain a fluctuating trend, with a price range of 118,000-123,000 yuan/mt.